Every chart. Every signal. Every risk score. Click Inspect Reasoning to see data sources, transformations, and counter-evidence weighed. No black boxes.
r* is a statistical construct, not an observable. This analysis audits the Kalman filter sensitivity — not the rate itself. Laubach-Williams (2003) assumes filter invariance; this test rejects that assumption.
Smets-Wouters (2007) is a Euro Area model. Results frame as representative NK model; same method applies to any DSGE. Single-model selection acknowledged.
Friedman (1968) predicted the Phillips Curve would break under adaptive expectations. This analysis identifies the specific epoch boundary where it did.
Causal pathway verification · Pearl (1995) backdoor criterion
Fiscal-to-monetary transmission path confirmed · Independence rejected
EDGAR time-indexed corporate data not yet loaded. Analysis uses FRED FYONET + BEA NIPA as fiscal proxies. Full corporate-sector test deferred.
Options flow: 62% sell-side hedging. The AI deprioritized this (velocity-to-price r=0.73 vs flow divergence r=0.31).
June 17 FOMC triggered broad tech sell-off. Flow may represent de-risking. Single-day macro > pattern probability.
Float expanded 4× since Jan 2021. Comparable squeeze structurally improbable. Insiders selling.
Drag trade history or connect brokerage
Macro-impacted trades excluded from primary analysis. Shown separately as "external risk events."
Research prototype. Every claim inspectable. Every number traceable. This is not financial advice.